MAU MAIN FOREX ??!!

Banyak instrumen untuk berinvesati dan mencari tambahan penghasilan, salah satunya ada bermain di Forex (perdagangan mata uang asing).

Banyak jutawan/milyuner yang muncul dari hasil forex, dan banyak juga yang rugi jutaan sampai milyaran dari main Forex. Sehinnga bermain Forex harusnya dilakukan dengan beradasarkan pengetahuan dan pengalaman (dari orang orang lain) sehingga kita bisa mengalami kemenangan dan bukannya keterpurukan.

Pesan kami, hati hati dalam berinvestasi dan bermain Forex...semoga anda berhasil

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Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the examination of past price movements to forecast future price direction. Technical analysts are sometimes referred to as "chartists" because they rely almost exclusively on charts for their analysis.

Technical analysis is applicable to stocks, indices, commodities, futures or any tradable instrument where the price is influenced by the forces of supply and demand. Price refers to any combination of the open, high, low or close for a given commodity/security over a specific timeframe. The time frame can be based on intraday (tick, 5-minute, 15-minute or hourly), daily, weekly or monthly price data and last a few hours or many years. In addition, some technical analysts include volume and/or open interest figures with their study of price action.

Money managers, traders and investors who find ways to outperform the market must also remain flexible and innovative. A method that works today does not mean it will work tomorrow.










The Beginning of Technical Analysis
At the turn of the century, the Dow Theory laid the foundations for what was later to become modern technical analysis. Dow Theory was not presented as one complete amalgamation, but rather pieced together from the writings of Charles Dow over several years.

Technical analysts believe that the current price fully reflects all information. Because all information is already reflected in the price, it represents the fair value and should form the basis for analysis. After all, the market price reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, including traders, investors, portfolio managers, market strategist, technical analysts, fundamental analysts and many others. It would be folly to disagree with the price set by such an impressive array of people with impeccable credentials. Technical analysis utilizes the information captured by the price to interpret what the market is saying with the purpose of forming a view on the future.

A technician believes that it is possible to identify a trend, and market turning points, invest or trade based on the trend and make money as the trend, or turning points unfolds. Because technical analysis can be applied to many different timeframes, it is possible to spot both short-term and long-term trends.

The IBM chart below illustrates a view on the nature of the trend. The broad trend is up, but it is also interspersed with trading ranges. In between the trading ranges are smaller uptrends within the larger uptrend. The uptrend is renewed when the stock or commodity breaks above the trading range. A downtrend begins when the stock or commodity breaks below the low of the previous trading range.



What is more important than Why?
It's been said, "A technical analyst knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing". Technicians, as technical analysts as they are called, are only concerned with two things:

1. What is the current price?
2. What is the history of the price movement?

The price is the end result of the battle between the forces of supply and demand for any particular item. The objective of analysis is to forecast the direction of the future price. By focusing on price and only price, technical analysis represents a direct approach. Fundamentalists are concerned with 'why' the price is what it is. For technicians, the 'why' portion of the equation is too broad and many times the fundamental reasons given are highly suspect. Technicians believe it is best to concentrate on 'what' and never mind why. Why did the price go up? It is simple, more buyers (demand) than sellers (supply). After all, the value of any item is only what someone is willing to pay for it. Who needs to know why? You may never know why.

Many technicians employ a broad-based, longer term, macro, long-term analysis first. The larger parts are then broken down to base the final step on a more focused/micro short-term, perspective. Such an analysis might involve three steps:

1. Broad market analysis through the major indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, NASDAQ and NYSE Composite, or Commodity Futures Index, or other broad indexes of various types.
2. Group analysis to identify the strongest and weakest groups within the broader market groupings, i.e. Indexes, Meats, Grains, Currencies, Metals, Energies, etc.
3. Individual analysis to identify the strongest and weakest within each group.

The beauty of technical analysis lies in its versatility. Because the principles of technical analysis are universally applicable, each of the analysis steps above can be performed using the same theoretical background. You don't need an economics degree to analyze a market index chart or commodity group. Charts are charts. It does not matter if the timeframe is 2 days or 2 years. It does not matter if it is a, market index, currency or commodity. The technical principles of support, resistance, trend, trading range and other aspects can be applied to any chart. While this may sound easy, technical analysis is by no means easy. Success requires serious study, dedication and an open mind. Technical analysis can be as complex or as simple as you want it.

Overall Trend:
The first step is to identify the overall trend. "The trend is your friend". This can be accomplished with trend lines, or moving averages, or both. A Moving Average (MA) is an average of data for a certain number of time periods. It "moves" because for each calculation, we use the latest "x" number of time periods' data. As long as the price remains above its uptrend line, or selected moving average or previous lows, the trend should be considered bullish. The trend theory holds that an uptrend remains intact as long as each successive intermediate high is higher than those preceding it and each reaction low stops and holds at a higher point than did earlier reaction lows. Conversely, a downtrend prevails when each intermediate decline allows prices to fall below previous lows and rallies fall short of earlier rally highs.

Support and Resistance Areas:
Support and resistance levels are unquestionably among the most important of all technical considerations. They are areas, which prices are expected to have difficulty moving above and beyond (resistance and support), and they therefore deserve especially careful considerations in buying and selling decisions. Support areas are areas of price congestion or previous lows, below the current price, which mark support levels. A break below support would be considered bearish. Resistance areas are areas of congestion or previous highs above the current price which mark resistance levels. A break above resistance would be considered bullish. The basic idea behind resistance and support theory is simply that price levels that were significant in the past will have significant impact on price action in the future.

Random Walk Theory:
The basic "random walk premise" is that price movements are totally random. Prices move at random and adjust to new information as it comes available. The adjustment to this new information is so fast that it is virtually impossible to profit from it. Furthermore, news and events are also random and trying to predict these (fundamental analysis) is also a lesson in futility. While there are some good points to be gleaned from the random walk theory, it appears to be a bit dated and does not accurately reflect the current investment climate. Random walk theory was introduced over 25 years ago when institutions dominated the market. These institutions had superior access to resources and the individual was at the mercy of the large brokerage houses for quality research. With the advent of online trading, power and influence are shifting from the institutions to the individual. Resources are now widely available to all at minimal cost, if not free. Not only can individuals access information, but the internet ensures that everyone will receive it almost instantaneously. They also have access to real time data and can trade like the pros. With the availability of real time data and almost instant executions, individuals can act on information like never before.

General Chart Analysis:

What Are Charts?
A price chart is a sequence of prices plotted over a specific timeframe. In statistical terms, charts are referred to as time series plots, usually containing the open, high, low, and closing prices.

Chart Patterns:
Much of our understanding of chart patterns can be attributed to the work of Richard Schabacker. His 1932 classic, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits, laid the foundations for modern pattern analysis. In Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (1948), Edwards and Magee credit Schabacker for most of the concepts put forth in the first part of their book. We would also like to acknowledge Messrs. Schabacker, Edwards and Magee, and John Murphy as the driving forces behind our understanding of chart patterns.

Pattern analysis may seem straightforward, but it is by no means an easy task. Schabacker states: �The science of chart reading, however, is not as easy as the mere memorizing of certain patterns and pictures and recalling what they generally forecast. Any general chart is a combination of countless different patterns, some being continuation patterns and some reversal patterns, and its accurate analysis depends upon constant study, long experience and knowledge of all the fine points, both technical and fundamental, and, above all, the ability to weigh opposing indications against each other, to appraise the entire picture in the light of its most minute and composite details as well as in the recognition of any certain and memorized formula.

To name just a few there are; Double tops and bottoms, Head and Shoulder tops and bottoms, Wedges, Flags, Triangles, Channels, Gaps (four types), Key Reversals, Island reversals, and more. There are also Candlestick charts which provide a different way of looking at, and analyzing, the same basic price data, open, high, low, and close.
A few other tools used on charts are Trend Lines, Support and Resistance areas, percentage retracements, Fibonacci retracements, Time cycles, Elliot Wave Theory Analysis, Gann Analysis, and more. Technical Indicator Analysis:

There are many ways to crunch the numbers and endless combinations. Here is a list of some of the more popular Technical Indicators:

* Accumulation Distribution
* Advance-Decline lines and ratios
* Arms Index (TRIN)
* Bollinger Bands
* Commodity Channel Index
* Moving Averages (of various types)
* Moving Average Convergence Divergence
* McClellan Osc
* Momentum
* On Balance Volume
* Parabolic SAR
* Relative Strength Index (RSI)
* Stochastic (fast and slow)
* Volatility


Markets move on anticipation, and often reverse on realization! A twist on the old stock market adage buys the rumor, sell the news.

Trade the expectation, reverse on the realization!

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Fundamental Analysis

Aside from technical analysis, another primary approach to analyzing currency market fluctuations is called fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis is the examination of economic indicators, asset markets and political considerations when evaluating a nation's currency in terms of another. The key to fundamental analysis is to gather and interpret this information and act before the information is incorporated into the currency price. The lag time between an event and its resulting market response presents a trading opportunity for the fundamentalist.

Here some major fundamental factors that can affect currency prices:





1. Decisions on interest rates made by central banks such as the US Federal Reserve or the European Central bank (ECB) monthly.
2. Quarterly GDP figures. Only preliminary national GDP figures generally have the effect of changing market sentiment.
3. Market sentiment data. Market expectations are formed from one week to two days before the event. Participants become well positioned based on expectations. If the figures are not a surprise, profit taking is often the only result.
4. Political Events. National elections, the September 11th attacks, and the war in Iraq are examples of events that have affected currency values.
5. Major indices. Inflation indices, Institute of Supply Management (ISM) in the US and the Purchasing Management Index (PMI) in Europe are also carefully followed by traders.
6. National industrial production figures.
7. US nonfarm payrolls (indicating new jobs created), Michigan sentiment figures in the US, the western German business climate or IFO index, and the Tankan quarterly survey in Japan.

There are times that governments through their Central Banks stand in the way of market forces impacting their currencies, and hence, intervene to keep currencies from deviating markedly from undesired levels. Currency interventions have a notable and oftentimes temporary impact on FX markets. A central bank could undertake unilateral purchases/sales of its currency against another currency; or engage in concerted intervention in which it collaborates with other central banks for a much more pronounced effect. Alternatively, some countries can manage to move their currencies, merely by hinting, or threatening to intervene.

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Forex Basics: How to start Your trading

By: Yudi Hariyanto





Everybody must have known about forex (currency exchange) market and advantages that offers. To start and try, there’s some tips about basics in forex and tell what you need to join in this challenge market.



Trade forex Learning



Before 1980’s, only large players such as banks and multi national corporations were permitted in the forex market. But after that, there are revisions that allow small investors to participate using ‘margin account’. This one makes forex trading has become so popular because with margin account 100:1, with a $1000 investment you can control $100000.





However forex is not an easy thing and you need to learn to make prudent investment decisions. Learn the risks that involved in and find out as much as possible about the forex market are a good step for any beginner before start trading in Forex. Also don’t forget to set up your mentality.



FOREX traders usually require a broker to handle transactions. Most brokers are reputable and are associated with large financial institutions such as banks. A reputable forex broker will be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as protection against fraud and abusive trade practices.



To open an account in forex is very simple. You just need to fill out a form and provide the necessary ID. The form will include a margin account agreement which states that the broker can interfere with any trade it deems to be too risky. This is to protect the interests of the forex broker – most trades, after all, are done using the broker's money. Once your account has been established, you can fund it and begin trading.



Many brokers have different types of accounts to suit the needs of individual investors. Mini accounts allow you to get involved in FOREX trading for as little as $250, while standard accounts may have a minimum deposit of $1000 to $2500 depending on the broker. The amount of leverage – using borrowed money – varies with accounts. High leverage gives you more money to trade for a given investment.



HOWEVER – beginner traders are advised to get familiar with FOREX by doing paper trades for a period of time. Paper trades are practice transactions that don't involve real capital. They allow you to see how the system works while learning how to use the various software tools that are provided by most FOREX brokers.



Most online brokers have demo accounts that allow you to make free paper trades for up to 30 days. Every new FOREX investor is strongly advised to use these demo accounts at least until they are showing consistently steady profits.



Each broker has their own set of software tools to aid in making transactions, but there are a few tools that are common to all FOREX brokers. Real time quotes, news feeds, technical analysescharts, and profit and loss analyses are some of the features you should expect to see on most online brokers' web sites. and



Almost every forex broker operates on the Internet. To access their online services you should have a reasonably modern computer, a fast internet connection, and an up to date operating system such as Windows XP. Once your forex account is set up, you can access it from any computer – just enter your account name and password. If for some reason you are not able get access to a computer, most brokers will allow you to make trades over the phone.


Forex Trading are commission free, means that you can make many trades in one day without worrying about gaining high brokerage fees. Brokers make their money on the 'spread' – the difference between bids and ask prices.

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What is FOREX trading?

Introduction to Forex

Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) is the arena where a nation's currency is exchanged for that of another at a mutually agreed rate. It was created in the 70's when international trade transitioned from fixed to floating exchange rates, and nowadays is considered to be the largest financial market in the world because of its tremendous turnover.

The rate at which currencies are exchanged one for another is called the currency exchange rate. For example, "EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.2505" means that one Euro is exchanged for 1.2505 US Dollars.


The exchange rate of any currency is usually given as the Bid price (left) and the Ask price (right). The Bid price represents what will be obtained in the quote currency (US Dollar in our example) when selling one unit of the base currency (Euro in our example). The Ask price represents what has to be paid in the quote currency (US Dollar in our example) to obtain one unit of the base currency (Euro in our example). The difference between the Bid and the Ask price is referred to as the spreat

Margin: 1% of transaction size for account balances below $ 100,000 ,2% of transaction size for account balances up to $ 250,000 and 4% of transaction size for account balances above $ 250,000

Calculating profit/loss

For example, EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.2505/1.2509 and your leverage is 1:100. You believe that EUR/USD will go up and buy 0.1 lot (minimum contract size) of EUR/USD at 1.2509 (Ask price) - for the contract size refer to Table 2. As we can see from Table 2, 1.0 lot of EUR/USD is 100,000 EUR, which means that 0.1 lot (our example deal size) is 10,000 EUR.

So, you buy 10,000 EUR and sell 10,000*1.2509=12,509 USD. In fact to fund this position you do not have to have 12,509 USD but only 125.09 USD. The rest of the money (in our example 12,383.91 USD) is leveraged to you by Alpari (UK).

Leverage (or gearing) mechanism allows you to open and hold a position much larger than your trading account value. 1:100 leverage means that when you wish to open a new position, then you need to support a deposit 100 times less than the value of the contract you are interested in.

For example, you believe that EUR/USD is moving higher and buy 10,000 EUR and sell 12,509 USD. Assuming you are right and EUR/USD goes up to 1.2599/1.2603 and you decide to close the position: when you close a long position you sell the base currency (10,000 EUR in our example) and buy the quote currency (10,000*1.2599 = 12,599 USD):

Transaction EUR USD
Open a position: buy EUR and sell USD + 10,000 - 12,509
Close a position: sell EUR and buy USD - 10,000 + 12,599
Total: 0 + 90

NB: When you close a short position you buy the base currency and sell the quote currency.

To fund this position you only need 100 EUR (approximately 125 USD) not 10,000 EUR. The profit on this position is 90 pips (1.2599-1.2509=0.0090). A pip or point is a minimal rate fluctuation. For EUR/USD 1 pip is 0.0001 of the price (see Table 2).

This example shows a favourable outcome. If EUR/USD had fallen you would realise a loss not a profit and with leverage this loss will be magnified. For example, if you close the position at 1.2419, your loss would be $90. Should you have doubts about your understanding of risks, please consult your financial adviser.
Rollover / Interest Policy

Foreign exchange trading at Alpari (UK) is dealt on a "Spot" basis only. This means that all trades settle two business days from inception, as per market convention. The settlement date is referred to as the value date. Alpari (UK) does not arrange physical delivery of currencies hence, all positions left open from 10:59:45 p.m. to 10:59:59 p.m. (London time) will be subject to a rollover.

A rollover involves closing and immediately reopening the position at a slightly different level from that of the closing price. The difference in closing and opening prices depends on the prevailing interest rates of the underlying countries whose currencies your trade relates to.

For example, let’s assume that the interest rates in the EU and USA are 4.25% p.a and 3.5% p.a respectively. Every currency trade involves borrowing one currency to buy another. If you have a buy position of 1.0 lot in EUR/USD, then you earn 4.25% on your Euros and borrow USD at 3.5% per year.

In other words:
• If you have a long position (i.e. bought) and the first currency in the currency pair has a higher overnight interest rate than the second currency, then you receive a gain.
• If you have a short position (i.e. sold) and the first currency in the currency pair has a higher overnight interest rate than the second currency, then you lose the difference.
• If you have a long position (i.e. bought) and the first currency in the currency pair has a lower overnight interest rate than the second currency, then you lose the difference.
• If you have a short position (i.e. sold) and the first currency in the currency pair has a lower overnight interest rate than the second currency, then you receive a gain.
Please note that if you open and close a position before 10:59:45 p.m. (London time) you will not be subject to a rollover.

As mentioned above, Alpari (UK) rolls all open positions by closing and immediately reopening the position at a slightly different level from that of the closing price. Rollover charges, (or Swap Points), can be found on the "Rollover / Interest Policy" webpage. See the examples below for detailed explanations.

Let’s assume that:
• you have a long position in EUR/USD. Swap points for rolling over open long positions in EUR/USD are +0.890 pips. This means that the position will be reopened at the closing price + 0.890 pips. So as a result of the rollover, you will be charged 0.890 pips.
• you have a short position in EUR/USD. Swap points for rolling over open short positions in EUR/USD are +0.660 pips. This means that the position will be reopened at the closing price + 0.660 pips. So as a result of the rollover, you will earn 0.660 pips.
• you have a long position in USD/CHF. Swap points for rolling over open long positions in USD/CHF are -1.140 pips. This means that the position will be reopened at the closing price - 1.140 pips. So as a result of the rollover you will earn 1.140 pips.
• you have a short position in USD/CHF. Swap points for rolling over open short positions in USD/CHF are -1.320 pips. This means that the position will be reopened at the closing price - 1.320 pips. So as a result of the rollover you will be charged 1.320 pips.
The act of rolling the currency pair over is known as tom.next, which stands for tomorrow and the next day.

NB: When you roll an open position from Wednesday to Thursday, then Monday next week becomes the value date, not Saturday; therefore the rollover charge on a Wednesday evening will be three times the value indicated on the "Rollover / Interest Policy" webpage.
Why trade Forex?

Unlike other financial markets Forex has no physical location, like stock exchanges, for example. It operates through the electronic network of banks, computer terminals or via telephone. The lack of a physical exchange enables Forex to operate on a 24-hour basis, spanning from one time zone to another across the major financial centres (Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Frankfurt, London, New York etc). In every financial centre there are many dealers, who buy and sell currencies 24 hours a day during the whole business week. Trading begins in the Far East, New Zealand (Wellington), then Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Moscow, Frankfurt-on-Maine, London and ends in New York and Los Angeles. Below there are approximate trading hours for regional markets (London time):

Japan 00:00-06:30
Continental Europe 06:30-13:00
Great Britain 8:30-15:30
USA 14:30-21:30

Forex has some advantages which make it very popular among investors:
• Liquidity. Forex is the largest financial market in the world, with the equivalent of over $3-4 trillion changing hands daily whereas traded volume on the stock markets equates to only 500 billion US dollars.
• Flexibility. Forex is a 24-hour market, which offers a major advantage over other markets, for example, stock exchanges which are only open during regional business hours. You can respond to breaking news immediately if the situation requires it and customise your trading schedule.
• Lower transaction costs. Traditionally there are no commissions or charges on Forex, except for the spread.
• Margin. Our 1:100 leverage (only for deposits below $ 100,000) is a powerful tool. You need to support a deposit of 1,000 US dollars to make a deal with $100,000. Such high leverage combined with rapid rate fluctuations can make this market profitable but at the same time risky: please see Risk Warning below.
Risk Warning:
Under margin trading conditions even small market movements may have a great impact on the customer's trading account. You must consider that if the market moves against you, you may sustain a total loss greater than the funds deposited. You are responsible for all the risks, financial resources you use and for the chosen trading strategy.
More about risks »

Forex Glossary

Base currency is the first currency in the pair. Quote currency is the second currency in the pair.
USD / JPY = 120.25
Base currency Quote currency Rate

This abbreviation specifies how much you have to pay in quote currency to obtain one unit of the base currency (in this example, 120.25 Japanese Yen for one US Dollar). The minimum rate fluctuation is called a point or pip.

Most currencies, except USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY and GBP/JPY where a pip is 0.01, have 4 digits after the period (a pip is 0.0001), and sometimes they are abbreviated to the last two digits. For example, if EURUSD is traded at 1.2389/1.2394 the quote may be abbreviated to 89/94.

The currency pairs on Forex are quoted as the Bid and Ask (or Offer) prices:
Bid Ask
USD / JPY = 120.25 / 120.30

Bid is the rate at which you can sell the base currency, in our case it's US dollar, and buy the quote currency, i.e Japanese Yen.

Ask ( or Offer) is the rate at which you can buy the base currency, in our case US dollars, and sell the quote currency, i.e. Japanese Yen.

Spread is the difference between the Bid and the Ask price.

Pip is the smallest price increment a currency can make. Also known as a point. e.g. 1 pip = 0.0001 for EUR/USD, and 0.01 for USD/JPY.

Currency Rate is the value of one currency expressed in terms of another. The rate depends on the supply and demand on the market or restrictions by a government or by a central bank.

Lot Size is the number of base currency, underlying asset or shares in one lot defined in the contract specifications. For details refer to the Table 2.

Lot is an abstract notion of the number of base currency, shares or other underlying asset in the trading platform.

Transaction (or deal) size is lot size multiplied by number of lots.

Long Position is a buy position whereby you profit from an increase in price. In respect of currency pairs: buying the base currency against the quote currency.

Short Position is a sell position whereby you profit from a decrease in price. For currency pairs: selling the base currency against the quote currency.

Completed Transaction consists of two counter deals of the same size (open and close a position): buy then sell or vice versa.

Leverage is the term used to describe margin requirements: the ratio between the collateral and the value of the contract. 1:100 leverage means that you can control $100,000 with only $1,000 (1%).

Margin is the collateral required by Alpari (UK) to open and maintain a position.

Balance is the total financial result of all completed transactions and deposits/withdrawals on the trading account.

Floating Profit/Loss is current profit/loss on open positions calculated at the current prices.

Equity is calculated as balance + floating profit - floating loss.

Free margin means funds on the trading account, which may be used to open a position. It is calculated as equity less necessary margin.
Internet trading on Forex

Alpari (UK) offers Internet trading on Forex via the MetaTrader 4 dealing software. We recommend that you read MetaTrader 4 user guide carefully and open a demo account before you start trading with us on a live account.

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